That even though we were enduring the most
boring election campaign EVER and we all knew the outcome would be
as predictable as any ballot in Stalin's Russia or Bush's America
there was nevertheless scope for a spread bet or two?
I was thinking: Terrific. I can finally get the better of
Finspreads!
You see, unlike trading or the inner workings of the City,
politics is something I actually understand.
Ever since I was a badly-behaved kid, and my parents threatened
that unless I mended my ways, Margaret Thatcher would come and sort
me out, I've been interested in the psychology of politics.
For instance, the moment John Major whipped out his soapbox, in
Cheltenham Spa of all places, I knew the Tories would come from
behind and contrary to all expectations deny Neil Kinnock the keys
to No 10.
An inspired piece of electioneering. But back in the dark age of
1992, when Finspreads wasn't even a twinkle in anybody's eyes, I
was obliged to dent the profits of traditional bookmakers. I made a
series of bets on the size of the Conservative majority, and
holidayed in Italy with my winnings.
Five years later, when Tony Blair swept into Downing Street on
the back of his landslide victory, I was once again on the winning
side. I even voted for the man; he looked like a pretty straight
kind of guy to me.
Fast forward to the election of 2001:
- I had still not discovered spread betting.
- My erstwhile lover, a champagne socialist if ever there was
one, went ballistic when he discovered I'd stuck a "Vote Tory"
poster in his upstairs window (about the only one on display
anywhere in NW1). He never did understand my sense of humour, and
we broke up a few weeks later.
- The public's love affair with Tony Blair was more enduring; I
called it correctly and won enough to pay for a short course of
therapy.
Which brings us to 4th May 2005
This time, two big questions. Who should I vote for? And
what on earth should I do about my disastrous BUY bets on the June
£/$? With time marching towards the expiry date, I seem to be not
so much in-for-a-penny-in-for-a-pound as down about five hundred
quid.
Someone's going to have to pay. And I thought it might as well
be Tony Blair.
But first, I consulted the Welshman. "Who's in charge of making
the market for the election specials?" I enquired. "I'd like to ask
a few questions." Get a few tips, more like it.
“Leave it to me,” he said.
Imagine my surprise when, an hour later, I received an email
from ACampbell@finspreads. I kid you not. That
really was the address.
Was this a case of Spinspreads? And if so, did they know
more than I knew?
We bantered by email:
“Are novelty bets like this popular?” I asked.
"Clients love these markets, and we've taken quite a lot of
business," Mr Campbell responded.
“And how’s the market trending?”
"Lots of Labour majority buying. Our price started at 50 55.
It's been going up ever since."
“Do you think the customers have got it right?”
"These markets are probably the best poll there is out
there."
Well this was about as revealing as watching Paxo interview
Charles Kennedy. Actually, that's not fair. In the light of this
conversation, I reckoned I'd spotted the value bet.
With less than 24 hours to go before the polling stations
opened, I took time out from filling in my stack of postal votes
(don't worry, that's a joke) to place my trades.
No matter what the opinion polls asserted, my gut was telling me
that Labour's massive majority was in for a good kicking. Dozens of
Blairites were about to get their P45s. And serve them right, not
only because of the War, but because of what New Labour has done to
education-education-education, all the phoney jobs they've created
in the public sector (if all else fails, I may yet apply to become
a five-a-day adviser) and Tony Blair's justification for identity
cards: "They will be useful if you want to rent a video."
Yes, he really did say that. And, yes, I know we are advised
against trading when we feel emotional.
Nevertheless. I gleefully sold a Labour majority of 87. They
couldn't possibly do that well. And once I'd placed my first trade,
simple mathematics dictated the rest:
- Conservative seats BUY @ 191
- Labour seats SELL @ 364
- Lib Dem seats SELL @ 67
Which brings us to election night. Finally, some decent
entertainment. My favourite bits were Shirley Williams correctly
announcing a Lib-Dem win in Cardiff hours before it happened... the
MP from Kent who said Tony Blair would be glad to see the back of
him, and then retained his seat...Paxo's interview with the
victorious George Galloway...and Stephen Twigg's face when the
result from Enfield Southgate was announced.
And then to the morning after the night before. How much had I
won? Finspreads wasn't going to tell me until the last vote was
counted.
Meanwhile, I was checking my email (apologies to everyone I
haven't yet replied to) and found this little gem from Barry M:
Hi Sally,
is that you on the picture or a model? If it's you we should
meet for a drink...
My tip of the day is buy Labour majority at around 83 at a £5
spread.
My tip of the day, Bazza, is that you need to work on your
chat-up lines. Sorry about your bet, too. Have you thought about
going long on £/$?
Which, of course, is something I've been trying NOT to think
about.
It's all very sad. As you might remember, I made two £1 BUY
trades (at 1.9176 and 1.9143) early in March. Bad idea. Compounded
by the lack of a stop-loss. At one point I was over £1,000
down.
Now comes the tragic bit. About two weeks ago it was a
Wednesday evening the dollar had continued to weaken, and suddenly
I was £4 in profit on one trade, and only £29 down on the other. I
felt wonderful. Vindicated. My long wait was about to pay off.
Profit beckoned. The following day I was losing £51. So I waited.
And waited. And now I'm losing £723...
Ah well. Next time it gets to break-even I’m getting out, I
promise.
Meanwhile, I won a total of 36 points from my election bets,
which translated into a modest £80. Plus a further £72 trading the
FTSE I mistakenly thought there would be an election feel-good
factor after the election, but in the event I won simply because
the DOW was roaring ahead.
I'll leave you with my tip for Michael Howard's successor. Check
out this link: http://www.williamhague.org.uk/
You know, he seems to be thinking what I’m thinking...
Sally Nicoll is a writer and a Finspreads customer
whose career to date has embraced journalism, broadcasting, and
advertising copywriting She lives in London and
is currently writing her second novel. Feel free to contact her
at veryluckymoney@hotmail.com.
Copyright 2004-2008 Finspreads.