Sadly, my own, personal "Finagotchi" has
suffered a nasty setback one that could easily have been avoided
had I been paying proper attention. Nothing fatal, but there was
money sitting on the table just waiting to be siphoned into my
account. Except I was otherwise occupied.
As you might remember, I've been doing a bit better on the
spreads, lately. I took some expert advice and mended my random
ways. (I preferred to call them experimental, but the results prove
I am no scientist). So instead of trading all over the place, I've
been concentrating mostly on the £/$ movements over the summer.
With nine of eleven recent trades going my way (and a profit of
over £500) I felt I was developing a real understanding for the
rhythm of this market-that-never-sleeps. Cable and I were singing
sweetly in tune.
So you can guess what happened next.
Next, I got the Opposite of Fan Mail from someone called RW.
Evidently, he hadn't been reading about my gains.
Dear veryunluckymoney, he began.
I have written to you before when I said that the trend is
your friend stuff and told you that you should consider getting
some decent software if you didn't have any. It can't be just bad
luck that you keep losing these trades. I think you need to do some
studying or give up."
This is the sort of lecture my Big Brother gives
me from time to time, and I decided that (a) RW was being
altogether too smug about his alleged regular wins on the Dow, (b)
I did not wish to buy the software he recommended and (c) his
advice could be safely ignored.
It was, therefore, inevitable, that my next trade
was a duff one: I lost £279 when the dollar bucked the trend and
weakened while my back was turned. I confess that at this point, I
snuck a look at RW's recommended software.
The home page promised me a real edge' when trading the
financial markets. Interestingly enough, it also enquired whether I
would perform brain surgery with a plastic fork. But better even
than this, the makers of this miracle short-cut to possibly
millions' have incorporated astrology into their software
system.
You know, as in: When the moon is in the stars, and
Jupiter aligns with Mars. Or as they themselves put it within an
illustrated chart: "Mercury and Venus set important price levels in
this decline". A loser I might be, but frankly, I think anyone who
goes for this needs to have their head examined with a plastic
fork.
Actually, I continue to have a problem with the whole business
and a billion dollar business it certainly is of charting software.
This is partly because I cling stubbornly to my Macintosh (well
done Finspreads for paying attention to customers like me and
sorting out a decent Mac trading platform) and most often the stuff
on offer is incompatible.
But more than this, all the software and "Earn-£75k-Overnight"
systems I've researched make these same "too good to be true"
promises which leave me feeling deeply sceptical.
My views are coloured by the fact that at one financial seminar
I went to, I met a man who had bought SEVEN systems and had yet to
make a trade understandably, he was paralysed by information
overload and conflicting advice.
Anyone out there know different? Anyone tried a system
that's delivered on its promises? If so, please don't keep the good
news to yourself.
I digress.
My next two £/$ trades recaptured £112, and it was time for my
next tutorial with SuperMum. I began with an obvious question:
"What's driving the £/$ market?"
SuperMum fed her youngest a croissant and considered. "The
dollar trades on US economic data. It's all down to the numbers.
There's NAPAM that's the National Association of Production
Managers then there's the trade deficit, CPI, PPI, Beige Books, Red
Books, Jobs Numbers, the Non Farm Payroll. Oh, and the interest
rates."
I observed that SM had thus far mentioned words and letters,
rather than numbers. And were they meant to be going up? Or
down?
"Listen," she told me, in the kindly voice of a teacher
who has decided a student is more suited to a lower set. "Forget
everything I just said. For the moment, at least. What really
drives the dollar is the price of oil."
I didn't have to wait long to see what she meant. Hurricane
Katrina devastated New Orleans ... oil prices rocketed in
response.... and the dollar declined against the pound by almost
six cents in a couple of days.
Six hundred points available from Finspreads to anyone who hit
the BUY button at the right moment.
As it so happened, this mayhem coincided with my birthday. I was
nowhere near a computer, and trading was the last thing on my mind.
Which brings me full circle to the Tamagotchi: the moment you take
your eye off the market is inevitably the moment when there's money
to be made.
I try to learn from my mistakes. So when Hurricane Rita began
its flight path to Texas , I was sitting at my trading screen.
Sure enough, oil prices rose. But the dollar?
Mysteriously, it strengthened. In the past week, it's gone from
around $1.81 all the way to $1.764.
"What's going on?" I asked SuperMum.
"B*****ed if I know. But don't worry about it. Go with the
trend."
I have been too circumspect to take this excellent advice,
expecting, at any moment, a mysterious and dynamic reversal.
This morning, SM told me: "I've been talking to a friend in
Boston . They think it's the Chinese. They've had enough of
Treasury bonds and are accumulating currency in a big way."
The moral of this piece of hot gossip?
The way I see it, the forces that move the market are, to a
greater extent, irrelevant. And although it is certainly comforting
when you think you understand what's going on, what really matters
is to follow the trend. Oh, and if you're trading in a volatile
market like £/$, think Tamagotchi.
Now, should I SELL, or wait for the market to recover... ?
...While I'm making up my mind,
please do keep me in touch with your stories from the trenches of
trading!
Sally Nicoll is a writer and a Finspreads customer
whose career to date has embraced journalism, broadcasting, and
advertising copywriting She lives in London and
is currently writing her second novel. Feel free to contact her
at veryluckymoney@hotmail.com.
Copyright 2004-2008 Finspreads.